Anyone watching the Donbas region? We should – it’s likely the spot where the match will be struck that starts the next Great-Power conflict.
The Donbas is an eastern part of Ukraine, immediately on Russia’s western border. It is occupied by pro-Russian separatists armed and supported by Russia, who have been in a state of Cold War with the government in Kiev since 2014, following the ouster of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. According to the Council for Foreign Relations’ conflict tracking website the conflict has killed more than 10,000 on all sides. Now Russia has massed about 98,000 troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border. According to NATO reports the buildup continues, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and some western intelligence services estimating that a Russian cross-border assault could occur as early as January.
Although winter is a miserable time to do anything in that part of the former Soviet Union, it’s clear that Vlad the Terrible wants stuff from both Ukraine and Washington, and he’ll take the risk of war to get it. He’s already said that Ukraine joining NATO or the presence of NATO troops and weapons in Ukraine would “cross a red line.” Make of that what you will. He wants a government in Kiev that will bend to Moscow’s will and surrender national territory if Russia demands – just like the old days. He’s also said that such activities elsewhere – Poland, for example – are unacceptable, so no-one should think that this story ends in Donetsk.
If Vlad decides that his opponents have not bowed and scraped quickly enough, he very well may invade and seize part – or even all – of Ukraine. What will the US response be? Remember, we guaranteed the territorial integrity of that country in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.
It’s pretty clear that Vlad knows his opponent. In response to Russia’s impending invasion, President Joe has threatened to “(put) together what I believe to be will be the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead…” In other words, to give him a severe taunting. Somewhere, the ghost of Marshal Zhukov is laughing his head off.
So when Russia invades, changing the borders of Europe for the second time in a decade under a Democrat president, he will be met with no meaningful response. And do not doubt that elsewhere other minds – covetous, unsympathetic and schooled in violence – will draw their plans accordingly.
Over the past few months Beijing has ratcheted up both military pressure and rhetoric against Taiwan – which it regards as legitimately its own – in an attempt to cow the de facto nation-state into agreeing to a “re-unification” with China. Eventually, Chairman-for-life Xi Jinping will decide to unleash the military power China has built up over the past few decades while the West told itself fairy stories. What will America do then?
Note that our Asian partners Japan and Korea have an existential stake in our reaction, and the rest of Asia will follow suit. If we do not vigorously oppose force with force, Asia is lost to us. And if we do, we will find ourselves in a shooting war in a place and time not of our choosing. The historical analogue of 1938-39 comes to mind.
Could one imagine this cascade of failure happening under a Donald Trump presidency? Maybe – but it’s pretty hard. So yes, elections have consequences. And to paraphrase H. L. Menken, we’re about to get them.
Good and hard.
